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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:37) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 8 for 1 yard (41-P.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model