Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at 50. 2-C.Bullock for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.29 EP
54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model