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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 51

Houston Texans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(:13) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to PIT 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.25 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model