4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model