4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 3-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model