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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 57

Chicago Bears 16 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:37) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at GB 30 for 27 yards (29-X.McKinney) [58-I.McDuffie].

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.33 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP