Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 6

(:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at GB 35 for 37 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.21 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model