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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 6

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Hopper [94-K.Brooks] at GB 2. 59-T.Hopper to GB 9 for 7 yards (85-C.Kmet).

The Three Options

GO +4.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model