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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 16

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 8-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.34 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model