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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.41 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model