Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 68

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

(5:19) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden (56-E.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

What Happened

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.96 EP
51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model