Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(15:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.79 EP
54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model