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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 82

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 9 yards (51-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model