Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 20. 11-P.Washington to JAX 20 for no gain (12-M.Kinsey).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model