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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 34

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 41

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.07 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model