4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 36

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 41

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor to JAX 26 for 10 yards (21-C.Braswell).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.11 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model