Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 4 at the 49
Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 34
What Actually Happened
(13:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor.
The Three Options
GO
-0.28 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
- 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
KICK
-1.36 EP
- 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
