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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model