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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington to JAX 25 for 6 yards (12-M.Kinsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP