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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.97 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model