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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 3-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model