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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor (23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP