Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

(7:10) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.00 EP
66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model