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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.70 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP