4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 88

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to SEA 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to 50 for 11 yards (46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on SF-49-G.Wallow, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.89 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 88, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 46, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP