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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 4 at the 4
Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
The Three Options
GO
+2.09 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.11 EP
- 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.23 EP
KICK
+1.12 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
- 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
