4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Kittle [58-D.Hall]. SF-13-B.Purdy was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -1.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model