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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +4.96 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model