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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP