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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to SEA 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.87 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP