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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to SF 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model