Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

(10:21) 7-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 19 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model