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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.21 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model