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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 27

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.09 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model