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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk (27-T.Woolen) [90-J.Reed].

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.87 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model