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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model