Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 75

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(:41) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.84 EP
54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model