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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model