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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 6

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.61 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP