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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 19

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP