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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 19

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at DEN 22 for 12 yards (23-J.Barron).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP