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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 19

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance scrambles left end ran ob at DEN 44 for 15 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -0.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model