4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 4

Denver Broncos 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.49 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP