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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(8:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 30-K.Vidal to DEN 44 for -2 yards (2-P.Surtain).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.45 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model