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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 22

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model