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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 73

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.41 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP