4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(:45) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DEN 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.90 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model