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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 48

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP