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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 45 for 33 yards (58-M.Wax).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.68 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model