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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 8

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model